Market Talk: Possible end of the 40-day US shutdown and the Federal Reserve Interest Rate

នេះជាអ្វីដែលយើងកំពុងផ្តោតលើ៖

លទ្ធភាពនៃការបើកដំណើរការរដ្ឋាភិបាលសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកបន្ទាប់ពី 40 ថ្ងៃ 

សមាជិកព្រឹទ្ធសភាប្រជាធិបតេយ្យមួយចំនួនតូច ព្រមទាំងគណបក្សសាធារណរដ្ឋបានរួមដៃគ្នាគាំទ្រទៅលើការបោះឆ្នោតអនុម័តសេចក្តីព្រាងច្បាប់ផ្តល់មូលនិធិដែលមានគោលបំណងបើករដ្ឋាភិបាលឡើងវិញ។ សេចក្តីព្រាងច្បាប់នេះនឹងត្រូវបានបញ្ជូនទៅសភាតំណាងរាស្ត្របន្ទាប់សម្រាប់ការអនុម័តបន្ថែម។ ប្រសិនបើត្រូវបានអនុម័តនៅទីនោះ វានឹងត្រូវបានបញ្ជូនទៅប្រធានាធិបតី ដូណាល់ ត្រាំ ដើម្បីសុំហត្ថលេខារបស់គាត់។ យោងតាមប្រភពព័ត៌មាន ​​CNN សភានឹងធ្វើការបោះឆ្នោតដំបូងរបស់ខ្លួននៅម៉ោង 4:00 រសៀល ម៉ោងនៅសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកនៅថ្ងៃពុធ។ លើសពីនេះ ប្រធានាធិបតី ត្រាំ ក៏បានធ្វើសេចក្តីថ្លែងការណ៍វិជ្ជមានដែលបង្ហាញថារដ្ឋាភិបាលអាចបើកឡើងវិញក្នុងពេលឆាប់ៗនេះដែរ។

→ នេះគឺជាសេចក្តីថ្លែងការណ៍វិជ្ជមានសម្រាប់សេដ្ឋកិច្ចសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក។ ទោះជាយ៉ាងណាក៏ដោយ ការផ្អាកដំណើរការអស់រយៈពេល 40 ថ្ងៃនេះក៏បានផ្តល់ផលប៉ះពាល់មួយចំនួនទៅកាន់សេដ្ឋកិច្ចរួចទៅហើយ ជាពិសេសទាក់ទងនឹងការផ្អាកដំណើរលើអាកាស ឬកង្វះខាតកម្លាំងពលកម្មជាដើម។ ប្រសិនបើរឿងនេះនៅតែបន្តបង្ហាញពីទស្សនៈអវិជ្ជមាន នោះសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកអាចប្រឈមមុខនឹងបញ្ហាទីផ្សារការងារបន្ថែមទៀត។

អត្រាការប្រាក់របស់ធនាគារកណ្តាលអាមេរិក

ប្រហែលមួយខែមុនការកាត់បន្ថយអត្រាការប្រាក់របស់ FED ក្នុងខែធ្នូ ប្រូបាប៊ីលីតេក្នុងការបន្ទាបអត្រាការប្រាក់បានស្ថិតនៅក្នុងកម្រិត 63.5% ទោះបីជា FED Miran បានលើកឡើងពីលទ្ធភាពនៃការកាត់បន្ថយអត្រាការប្រាក់ចំនួន 50 bps កាលពីប៉ុន្មានថ្ងៃមុនក៏ដោយ។

ជាក់ស្តែង ម្ខាងបានលើកឡើងពីភាពទន់ខ្សោយនៃទីផ្សារការងារ ខណៈ​ម្នាក់​ទៀត​នៅ​តែ​ឃើញ​មាន​កំណើន​ខ្លះ​ពី​វា ដែល​បង្ហាញ​ថា ធនាគារ​កណ្តាលអាមេរិក​នៅ​តែ​មិន​ប្រាកដ​ប្រជា​អំពី​កម្រិត​នៃ​បញ្ហា​នេះ។ នេះ​កើតឡើង​នៅ​ពេល​ដែល​ពួកគេ​ពុំមានទិន្នន័យគ្រប់គ្រាន់​ដោយសារ​តែ​ការ​បិទ​ទ្វារនេះ។

|English Version|

Here is what we are focusing on: 

Possible end of​ the 40-day US shutdown 

Some Senate Democrats joined Republicans in voting to approve a funding bill aimed at reopening the Federal government, although some still believe that the shutdown is worth it to win over the healthcare bill. The bill has advanced to the House of Representatives for its approval. If passed there, it will be sent to President Donald Trump for his signature. According to CNN, the House will hold its initial vote as early as 4:00 PM US time on Wednesday. President Trump has also made positive statements suggesting the government could reopen soon.

→ This is a positive statement for the US economy; however, the damage is already done, especially in terms of flight cancellations or the labor shortage. If this continues to proceed negatively, the US might face further labor challenges. 

The Federal Reserve Interest Rate 

About a month ahead of the FED rate cut in December, the probability has been standing at 63.5% despite the FED Miran bringing a 50 bps rate cut to the table last few days. 

One blamed on weakness in the labor market, while another still sees some growth from it, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is still uncertain about the degree of the issue. This comes when they lack in data release due to the shutdown. 

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