Diving Market Factor: The Bank of Canada, Donald Trump’s Pressuring, And US Economic Outlook

ធនាគារកណ្តាលកាណាដា 

ដោយសារតែធនាគារកណ្តាលកាណាដា​កាន់តែមានទំនុកចិត្តច្រើនជាងមុនទៅលើស្ថានភាពសេដ្ឋកិច្ច នេះបានជំរុញឱ្យពួកគេរក្សាអត្រាការប្រាក់នៅក្នុងកម្រិតដដែលគឺ 2.75%។ ទោះជាយ៉ាងណាក៏ដោយ ពួកគេក៏បានលើកឡើងពីលទ្ធភាពដែលពន្ធអាករអាចប៉ះពាល់យ៉ាងខ្លាំងទៅលើការកើនឡើងនៃអត្រាអតិផរណា និងការធ្លាក់ចុះនៃស្ថានភាពសេដ្ឋកិច្ច ដែលអាចធ្វើឱ្យពួកគេបន្ធូរបន្ថយគោលនយោបាយរូបិយវត្ថុនាពេលខាងមុខ នេះបើយោងតាមអភិបាលធនាគារកាណាដា Macklem ។ ជាងនេះទៅទៀត យោងតាមប្រភពព័ត៌មានមួយបានលើកឡើងថា ប្រទេសកាណាដានាពេលនេះកំពុងពិចារណាទៅលើការដាក់ពន្ធត្រឡប់ទៅអាមេរិកវិញ​ ប្រសិនបើការពិភាក្សាជាមួយនឹងអាមេរិកមិនបានសម្រេច។ 

សេចក្តីប្រកាសលើការបិទផ្លូវដំណើរទេសចរណ៍របស់លោកប្រធានាធិបតី Donald Trump

លោក Trump បានធ្វើការហាមឃាត់ការធ្វើដំណើរ និងការរឹតបន្តឹងចូលមកកាន់អាមេរិកម្តងទៀត ដែលគ្រោងនឹងចូលជាធរមាននៅម៉ោង 12:01 ព្រឹកថ្ងៃចន្ទ លើប្រទេសមួយចំនួនរួមមាន Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen និងជាច្រើនទៀត។ វិធានការទាំងនេះបានធ្វើឡើងក្រោយពីមានការវាយប្រហារភេរវកម្មនាពេលថ្មីៗនៅទីក្រុង Boulder រដ្ឋ Colorado ហើយវាបានបង្កឱ្យមានការភាន់ច្រឡំមួយចំនួនក្នុងចំណោមប្រជាជាតិនានា ដែលជាកត្តាមួយទៀតក្នុងការជំរុញឱ្យតម្លៃមាសឡើងខ្ពស់ផងដែរ។

កិច្ចព្រមព្រៀង Trump-Putin 

ការសន្ទនាតាមទូរស័ព្ទរវាងលោក Trump និងលោក Putin បានធ្វើឱ្យសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក និងរុស្ស៊ីឱ្យកាន់តែជិតស្និទ្ធជាងមុន ដោយសារតែពួកគេសិទ្ធតែមានគោលដៅដូចគ្នា។ ទីមួយ ពួកគេទាំងពីរទទួលស្គាល់ថា រុស្ស៊ី និងអ៊ុយក្រែន ប្រហែលជាមិននាំមកនូវ “សន្តិភាពភ្លាមៗ” ឬបញ្ឈប់បទបាញ់ប្រហារភ្លាមៗនោះទេ ទោះបីជាមានការពិភាក្សាយូរមកហើយក៏ដោយ។ លើសពីនេះ លោកពូទីនក៏បានព្រមានអំពីការសងសឹកចំពោះការវាយប្រហារត្រឡប់ទៅវិញទៅលើប្រទេសអ៊ុយក្រែនផងដែរ។ ទីពីរ រុស្ស៊ី​អាច​នឹង​ចូល​រួម​ពិភាក្សាក្នុងកម្មវិធី​នុយក្លេអ៊ែរ​របស់អុីរ៉ង់ ដែល​ជួយ​អាមេរិក​ក្នុង​ការ​ដោះស្រាយ​កិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងឱ្យ​បាន​លឿនជាងនេះ។ 

ទស្សនវិស័យសេដ្ឋកិច្ចអាមេរិក 

ទិន្នន័យរបស់សហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកកាលពីយប់មិញបង្ហាញពីការធ្លាក់ចុះនៃស្ថានភាពទីផ្សារការងារ ខណៈពេលដែលទស្សនវិស័យសេដ្ឋកិច្ចប្រហែលជាមិនសូវល្អនោះទេ ដោយសារផលប៉ះពាល់នៃពន្ធគយមានភាពមិនប្រាកដប្រជា។ ជាក់ស្តែង ទិន្នន័យការងារ ADP Nonfarm Employment បានធ្លាក់ចុះដល់កម្រិតទាបបំផុតចាប់តាំងពីខែមីនា ឆ្នាំ 2023 ខណៈពេលដែលសន្ទស្សន៍អ្នកគ្រប់គ្រងការទិញសេវាកម្ម ISM ក៏បានធ្លាក់ចុះក្រោមតម្លៃ 50 នោះដែរ។ 

កត្តាទាំងអស់នេះ គួបផ្សំជាមួយនឹងការដាក់សម្ពាធរបស់លោក Trump លើការបន្ធូរបន្ថយអត្រាការប្រាក់របស់ធនាគារកណ្តាលអាមេរិក សុទ្ធតែអាចជំរុញឱ្យតម្លៃមាសកើនឡើងដល់ $3,384 ក្នុងមួយអោន។

|English Version|

The Bank of Canada 

Given how the Bank of Canada is gaining more confidence in the economic outlook, this has led them to hold the interest rate steady at 2.75%. However, they also raised the potential for re-acceleration from the tariff impact, while too much weakening in economic activities might require further easing, as per the Bank of Canada’s Governor Macklem. Furthermore, a reliable source also mentioned the likelihood that Canada is now considering a retaliatory tariff against the US if the removal does not succeed. 

Mr. President Donald Trump’s Travel Bank Announcement

Trump reinstated the travel ban and restriction once again after his first term’s ban in 2017, which is set to go into effect this time at 12:01 AM Monday on countries including Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, and many more. These measures followed the news of the recent terror attack in Boulder, Colorado, and that has caused some confusion among the nations, which is also another factor in pushing GOLD up high.  

The Trump-Putin agreement. 

A phone call between Trump and Putin has pulled both the US and Russia closer, given how they both agreed on certain terms. First, they both acknowledge that Russia and Ukraine might not bring “immediate peace” despite having prolonged discussions. Plus, Putin also warned about taking revenge for the Ukrainian drone attack. Secondly, Russia might possibly be involved in Iran’s nuclear program, aiding the US to settle the agreement faster. 

The US Economic Outlook 

Last night’s US data suggests a weakening in labor market conditions, while the economic outlook might not be as bright as before, given how uncertain the tariff impact is. ADP Nonfarm Employment changes dropped to the lowest since March 2023, while the ISM service purchasing managers’ index also contracted below the benchmark. 

With all these factors coming into play along with how Trump continues to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate, these have led the gold price to surge to $3,384 per ounce.

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