α ααα»α ααααΆααααΒ
- ααααα·ααααα·ααΆαααΈααααΆαααΎαα αα α¬Open Market Operations (OMO) ααΊααΆα§ααααααααααΆαααα·α α¬αααααΌααααααΒ
- ααΆαααααααααααααΌαα·αααααα(Money Supply) ααΊαααα ααΎα ααααααααΆαααα αααα»αααααααα·α αα αβ
- α’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαααααα ααΎααΆααααααα’αααααα αΈααααΌααααα·ααΒ
- ααΆααααααΌααααααααααααααΆα αα·αααΆαααΉααααααΉαααααααααΆαααΊααΆαααααααααααααΆααΆααααααΆαα ααααΆα α ααααααααα·ααααα·ααΆαααΈααααΆαααΎαα αα α¬Open Market Operations (OMO)ααααΆααααααΆα§ααααααα½αααα»αααααα
ααΎα’αααααΉαααααΆααΆαααααααα½αα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαααα·ααααααΆα§αααααααΌαα·αααααα»αααα½αααααααααααΌαααΆαααααΎααΎααααΈα»ααααααααααα ααΎααααΎαααααααα·α αα αα·αα’ααααΆα’αα·ααααΆ?
ααααα·ααααα·ααΆαααΈααααΆαααΎαα αα α¬Open Market Operations (OMO) ααΊααΆα§ααααααααααααΎααΎααααΈαααααα ααΆαααααα αααααααΆααΆααααααΆα α αΎαααΆα’αΆα αααα·ααα αααα»αααΌαααΆαααααΆααα·α α¬αααααΌαααααααΌα ααΆT-bills α¬ααΈααααΆαααΌαααααα
α αΎαααΎααααΈααααΎααΌα αααα αα½αααααα’αΆα ααααΌαααΆαα₯αααα·ααααΈαααααααααα½αα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαα ααααααΆααα ααααααΆα αααααΆααααααααα αααααΈααΆααΆαα₯αααα·ααααΊααααΆαααααααΈααΆαααααΆααααααΌαααααααααΆαααααα ααααΆαααα₯αααα·ααααΆαααααα’αΆα ααΈαααΆαααΆααααααααααα·α αα ααΈααααΆαααΌααααααααα»α ααααααΆααααΈααααΆαααΌαα·ααααααα’ααααααΆαα·ααααααα
ααα»ααααααΎαααΆααΆααααααΆαααααΎαα·ααΈααααααΆαααΌα ααααα ?
ααΌα αααααΆααααααΆααααΆαααΎ αααααααααα½αααα ααααααΆα αααααΆαα α¬ααΆαααααΆααααααΌαααααα·ααααα·ααΆαααΈααααΆαααΎαα αα α¬Open Market Operations (OMO) ααααΌαααΆαααααΎαααΎαααΆααααααααα·ααααα·ααΆαααααΌαααααα αααααΆααααααΆα
ααααα·αααΎαααΆααΆααααααΆααα·αααΌααααα ααααααα αΆαααΆαα½ααααααα»αα αΆαααααα αΌαα ααα½αααΉαααααΆααααΆααααα αααΎαα αΌααα αααα»αααααααα·α αα (a.k.a. ααΆαααΎαα‘αΎαααααΆαααααααααααααααΆαα)αα·αααΆαααααααα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααααααααααααΒ
- ααΆαααααααααααα»αααααΎαααααααα·α αα αααααααΎα²ααα ααα½αααΉαααααΆααααΆααααα αααΎααα αααα»αααααααα·α αα α αΎααααααΉαααααΎα²ααα’αααααα αΈααΆααααααΆααααα½αα ααΌα αααα ααΆααααααΆαα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααααΆααααααΆα ααΉαααααΎα²αααααααΌαααΆαααααΎααααΆαα ααααααΆααααααΎαααααααα·α αα ααΆααααα αααΎαααΆααα»ααΒ
ααααα·αααΎαααΆααΆααααααΆααααααΌααααα ααααααα αΆαααΆαα½ααααααα»αααα ααα½αααΉαααααΆαα (a.k.a. αααααααΆαααααααααααααααΆαα) αα·ααααααΎαα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααααααααααααΒ
- ααΆαααααααααααααααααα’ααααΆα’αα·ααααΆαααααΆαααΉααααααΉαααααααααΆαααΌαα·αααααα» (α’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαααααααααΆααα»α) α αΎααααααΆαααΆαααααααα₯αααΆααα αααα»αααααααα·α αα α ααΎαααΈααα ααΆααααΆαααΆααααααααααααΌαααΆαααααΎααααΆαα ααααααΆααααααΎαααααααα·α αα αααααααΒ
αααααΆαααΆαααΆααααα ααΎααΆαααααΆααααααΌαααΆαααααααααααααααΆαα αα·αα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααααΌα ααααΆαααα¬αα?
αααααΈααΆα§αααααααΆααααΈαα’αΆα ααΆααααααααΆααααααααααααΆααααα ααααΆαα·αααΌα ααααΆααΆαααααα»ααααα
β α ααα½αααΆα αααααΆαα αααα ααΎα ααα½αα αααααα»ααααα»αααααααα·α αα α ααααα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαααααα αα ααΎααΆαααααααααΆαααααα αΈαααα’αααααα αΈααααΌααααα ααα αΆαααααα»αα
αααααααααα ααα½αααΆα αααααΆαα ααααααΆααα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααα’αΆα ααΆαααααΆααααααααααΆαα αα·ααα αα ααα»ααααααΆααααΈαααααα·αααΌα ααααΆααα αααΆααΆααααααΆαααΆαα αααΎαααααΎααααΆααα§αααααααΆααααΈααααα αΌαααααΆ ααΎααααΈαααααα ααΆαααΌαααααααααααααα½αααα αααααΆααααααΆ ααααα·αααΎαααΆααΆααααααΆαααΆαααααΎααααΆααα ααα½αααΆα αααααΆααααΎααααΈαααααααααα’αα·ααααΆ α¬ααααΎαααααααα·α αα αα½αααααααααΌαααααΆααααααΌαα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααααΆαα»αααααααα
“ααΆααααΈααα·αααΌα ααααΆαα ααα»ααααααΆααααΈααααα’αΆα ααα₯αααα·αααα αα·ααα αα”
ααΎαα½αααα’αΆα ααααΎα§αααααααΆααααΈααααα»αααααααα½αααΆαααα α¬αα?
ααααααααααα½αααα’αΆα ααααΎααααΆααα§αααααααΆααααΈααααα»αααααααα½ααααααβ ααααααα·αααααΆαααααΎααααΆαααααα’αΆααααααα ααΎααααΆαααΆαααααααα·α αα ααααααα α§ααΆα ααα ααααα·αααΎαααΆααΆααααααΆααααααααααΆαααα ααΎαααα αΆα’αα·ααααΆ ααααα½αααα’αΆα ααΉαααα‘αΎαα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααααΎααααΈααααα»ααααααααΆααααΉααααα αΆαααα ααααα·αααΎααααΆαααΆαααααααα·α αα ααΆαααααααΆαααααΊα α¬ααα α»α α¬α’αΆα ααΆαα αΆαα·ααααααα·ααααα·ααααααα·α αα ααααα½αααα’αΆα ααΉααααααα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααααΎααααΈαααα»αααααΎαααααααα·α αα α
ααα»ααααα ααααα ααα½αααΆα αααααΆαα (Money Supply) αα·αβ? ααααα·αααΎαααααααααα ααΉααααααααααα½αα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαααα·α αααααααααα½αα ααα½αααΆα αααααΆααα’αΆα ααΉαααα₯αααα·αααα·α ααΆααα ααΎαααα αΆααααααααα ααα»ααααααααα·αααΎαα·ααΆαα’αααΈαααα αΆααΆα αααααΆααααΆααααα½α α¬ααααααΈαααΆααα·α αααααΆαααΆαααααααα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααα’αΆα ααΆαα₯αααα·αααα·α αα½α ααΎααΆαα αααΆα αααααααααα½αα ααα½αααΆα αααααΆααα’αΆα ααΉαααα₯αααα·ααα αααΎαααΆαα αααααααΆααααααΆ ααααα·αααΎαααΆααΆααααααΆαα αΆαααααα αΌαααΆα αααααΆααααΆααααα½αααΆααααα αααΎαα αΌααα αααα»αααααααα·α αα αααααΎαα’αΆα ααΉαααΎαααααΎαααααααα·α αα ααΆααααα αααΎαα
α αΎαβααΎβαα½αβααβα’αΆα βαααααΆαβα’ααααΆβααΆαβααααΆαα ααααααααααααΆαααααααα ααα½αααΆα αααααΆααααα α¬αα?
ααΆααΆααα·αααΆαααα½αααα’αΆα ααααΎααΆαα αα·ααΈααΆααααααααα’αΆα ααΉαααΆαα αΆαα·αααααααΆαα αααααΆαααααΆα’αΆα ααααα²ααααΆαα’αα·ααααΆααααα ααααααΆααα’αααα·αααΆαααααααΆαααΆαααααααα·α αα α αΌααααααα ααα»αααααααααα’αΆα α αΆαααα»αααΆααΆαα·ααΈααΆααααααα½ααααααααΎα²ααααΆααα»αααααΆααααΆααααα αΆααΆααααΈαα
αααα»αα§ααΆα αααααΆααααααα αααΆααΆααααααΆαα’αΆα ααΉαααΆαααααααα ααα½αααΆα αααααΆαααα αααα»αααααααα·α αα ααΎααααΈαααααααΆααααΉαα’ααααΆα’αα·ααααΆ αααααααααααα½ααααααα α»αα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαααα ααΎαα·ααααα½αα ααα½α α¬αααααΆαααααααααααα αΈααΆαα·ααααα ααΎαααααΆαααα ααααΆαααααΆαααΌα αα·ααααααααΎααααΈααΆααααααααααααααΆαααα αααα’αααααααΎααααΆαα αα·αα’αΆααΈαααααα
ααααααααααα·ααΈααΆαααααααααα·αααΌαααααα·αααααα»αααΆαααααΎααααΆαα ααα»ααααααΆαα ααααααΌαααΆααααα·α αΆαααΆααααΎααααΆαααα ααααααααΆααααα»ααααααΆαα·ααΆαα αααΎαααΎααααα
α αααΆαααααΆαα
- ααΆαβααααΎβααααΆααααΆααααααΆαα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαα ααΆαααααΉαααΆαα αΆαααααα αΌαααΆα αααααΆααααΆααααα αααΎαααααΌαααΆαααααΎαααΎαααΆ ααΆααΆααααααΌααααααααααααααΆαααΌαα·αααααα»α αααααααααΆααααΆαααΆααΆααααααΆααααα»αααααΆααΆααααα»αααααΎαααααααα·α αα αααααΆαααΎαααΉαα α·ααααααααΆαα αααΆαααααα’αααααααΎααααΆααααΆααααα αααΎα ααΆαααα·αααΆααααα αααΎα ααααααΆαααααααΎαα ααα½αααΆαααΆαααΆααααααααααΒ
- αααααΆαααΆαααΆααααα α’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαααααααααΆααα»α αα·αααΆααααααΌααααααααα»α α¬ααααααΆααα ααααΈααααααα·α αα ααααΌαααΆαααααααΆααααΆααΆ “ααΆαααΉααααααΉαααααααααΆαααΌαα·αααααα»”α ααααααααα αΆαααΆαααΆααΆααααααΆααααα»αααΆαααΆααα ααΎααΆααααααΆαα’ααααΆα’αα·ααααΆααααα’ααααΆααααα αααα αΆαααααΆα 2% ααΎααααΈαααααα ααΆαααΌααααα·αααΆαααααααΒ
ααΌα αααα ααΎαααΎαααΆααΎααααΈαααααα ααΆαααααα αα½α αα½ααααααα ααααΆααααΌαααααααα½αααα α αΎααααααΎαααααααΌαααΆαααααααΆααααΆααΆ “ααααααα Phillips”α αααααΊααΆααααΆαααααααααα αααΆααααΆααα·ααααααα’αα·ααααΆ αα·αα’ααααΆααααΆαααΆαααΆαααααΎα
αααααΆαααΆαααΆααααα ααΎαααααΆααααααΆααΎααα·αα’αΆα αααααα ααΆαααααα ααΆααααΈα ααααα½αααΆα “αααα·αααΆαααααα αα·αααααα·αααΆαααΆαα’αα·ααααΆ” αααααα α¬αα? αααααΈααΆααΆα’αΆα ααΉαααΆαααΆαααααΆααααα»αααΆααααααα ααΆαααΌαααααΈαααααα ααα»ααααααααα·αααΎαααΆααΆααααααΆααααααα αααααΆααααΌαααΆαααααααΆααααΆααααΆααΈαααΌ soft landing α
|English Version|
Key Term:
- Open Market Operations is a tool for buying or selling securities.Β
- Money supply refers to the amount of money circulating in the economy.
- The interest rate refers to the percentage that the borrower needs to pay back.Β
- Both quantitative easing and quantitative tightening are the objectives that central banks need, while open market operations are just a tool.Β
Do you know interest rate adjustment is not the only monetary tool that is used to influence economic growth and inflation control?
Open market operations is the tool used to achieve the dual mandate from the central bank, which could be in the form of purchasing and selling securities such as T-bills or bond markets.
And in order to do so, they may need help from the adjustment in the interest rate and money supply. Although there is some lagging effect from these changes in the policy, the impact tends to be widespread to both the economy, bond market, and FX market.
But how does the central bank use this?
As mentioned above, changes in money supply or adjusting in OMO could be seen through the transaction of the securities, meaning that:Β
If the central bank purchases the securities, this suggests that they are injecting the money supply into the economy (a.k.a., an increase in money supply) and indirectly lowering the interest rate.Β
- Aiming to stimulate economic growth by circulating more money supply in the economy, which makes it more accessible for the borrower. Therefore, having lower borrowing costs would bring more consumption into the economy and boost growth.Β
If the central bank sells the securities, this suggests they are taking out the money supply (a.k.a. lowering the money supply) and indirectly increasing the interest rate.Β
- Aiming to take control of inflation by tightening monetary policy (higher interest rate), which lessens the credit availability in the economy. This will limit the demand for consumption and restrain growth.Β Β
However, do changes in money supply and interest rate mean the same thing?
Although the effects of both tools might be similar, they are not completely the same thing.
β Money supply refers to the amount of money circulating in the economy, while the interest rate refers to the percentage that the borrower will have to take in exchange for a loan.
While money supply and interest rates are interconnected, they are not identical. Central banks often use both tools in combination to achieve their macroeconomic objectives. Saying that if the central bank uses the money supply to take control of inflation or stimulate economic growth, then it also influences the interest rate adjustment first.
βBoth are not the same and yet they are affecting one another.β
Can they use both tools at the same time?
While they can use both at the same time, however, the degree of use depends on the economic condition. For instance, if the central banks prioritize the inflation problem, they may hike the interest rate to combat the problem. If the economic condition is getting worse or slowing down, or possibly with the recession risk, then they may lower the interest rate to stimulate growth.
But how about the money supply? The money supply has slow effects compared to the interest rate on the surface problems mentioned above. However, if talking about the liquidity problem or liquidity traps, where lowering the interest rate might have little effect on spending, then this is where the money supply comes forward. This means that if the central banks inject liquidity into the economy, then we are likely to see more growth in a short period.
And can they lower the interest rate while
decreasing the money supply?
Of course, they can. This approach tends to be risky because it could lead to hyperinflation and instability of the economic conditions, and yet it can be a balancing act that could address two conflicting objectives.
In a realistic example, they reduced the money supply to curb inflation while lowering the interest rate for some specific sectors or types of loans, especially for SMEs, to soften the degree of impact on the consumer and business.
While this combination is rarely used and can be challenging to implement effectively, it might also be considered in situations where excessive government debt is a major concern as well.
Important Note
- The usage of lowering the interest rate combined with injecting the money could be seen as “quantitative easing.” This dictates that the central bank is trying to stimulate economic growth by encouraging more consumer spending, more production, and a higher employment level.Β
- However, higher interest rates and selling the bond or taking the money out of circulation are known as the βquantitative tightening.β This also suggests that the central bank is prioritizing bringing inflation down to the annual target rate of 2% to achieve price stability.Β
With these two points in mind, we see that to achieve one, they may need to sacrifice one, which is also known as βPhillips curves.” Itβs a reverse relationship between inflation data and the unemployment rate.
However, does that mean we cannot achieve both or a dual mandate, βprice stability and maximum employment levelβ?
Even though this could be very difficult to achieve in such a case, if the central bank does, then this is known as the βsoft landingβ scenario.