αα αααα»αααΆααα½αααΌα ααΆααααααααααα ααα½ααα½ααααααααΌαααΆαααααααΎααααΆααα αααΎα ααΆαα·ααααα ααΎααΆααα·ααΆαααΆααααααΌαααααΆαα¬ααααΌαααΆαααααΆααααΆααΆααΆααα·ααΆαααααααα·α αα αα·αα α»ααααααααΊααΆααα·ααΆαααΆαααααα αα αααααα αααααΆαααΆαααΆααααα ααααααααΈαα½αααααα»αααααΌαααΆααα·α αΆαααΆααΆαααααααααΆααΆα αααΎαααΌα ααΆααααααα ααα ααααΈαααααΆααααααααΆααΆααααααΆα ααΆαααααΆααααααΌαααααααααΆαααΆααααααααααααΆαααΌαα·αααααα» α¬ααααααααΆαααΆαααΎααααααΉαααα₯αααα·αααααΆααααααααΎαααααααΆαααααααα·α αα ααΆαα·ααααααααααααα’αΆαααααααααααα·αα·αααα·αα ααααααΆααα·αα·ααααααααα½αααα αααΆααΆααααααΆαα’αΆα ααΉααααααΉα α¬αααααΌααααααααΌαα·αααααα» ααΎααααΈαααααα α²ααααΆαααΌααααα·αααΆαααααα αααααΎαα ααα½αααΆαααΆαα²ααααΆαα αααΎα ααααααΆαααααααΆααααΆαααΆαααααααα·α αα αααα»ααα»αααΆαααα’αααααΎαα αα·ααααααααααααα·α αα ααΎααααΈα²αααααΆααΆααααααΆαααααΎααΆααααααα α α·αααααααααααΆαααΌαα·αααααα»α²ααααΆαααααΉαααααΌα αα½αααααααΌαααΆαααΆααα ααΎαα·ααααααααααααα·α αα αα½αα ααα½α ααΌα ααΆα’ααααΆααααΆαααΆαααΆαααααΎ α’ααααΆα’αα·ααααΆ ααα·αααααα»ααααα»ααααα»α ααΆααααααΆα α¬αααααααααα’ααααααααααααααΆααα·αααΆααΎαα αα·ααααααααααΆαααααΆαααααααΉααααααααααααΆαααααΆααααααα α α·αααααΎα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααα ααααΎαααααααα·α αα ααΆααααα αααΎα αα·αα’αα·ααααΆαααααα’αΆα ααααΎα²αααααΆααΆααααααΆαααΉααααααΉαααααααααΆαααΌαα·αααααα»ααααααααα αα·ααααα»ααααα·αα αααααΈααΆαααΆαααΆααααα ααααααα·αααααααααα·α αα αα·αααααΆαα ααααααΆαααααΎααααααααααΆααΆααααααΆαααΆααααααΆαα·ααααα αΆαααΌα α’αααΈαααααΎαααΆαααααααααα ααΆααααααα αααΆααΆααααααΆαα’αΆα ααΉααα·α αΆαααΆαα ααΎαααααΆααααααααα αα»αααΉαααααΎααΆααααααα α α·ααα ααΌα ααααααΆαα·ααααααα½ααααααα»ααααααααααααααα ααααααΆαβαα½αααΌααααααα½αααα αααααΆαααααΆα αααα’αΆα ααΉαααΆααααααααααα½αααααΆαα α’αΆααααααα ααΎααααα·ααααααααα’ααααααααΆααα ααΎααΆααααααααΈαα½αα α αΎααααααΆα’αααΈααααααααΆαα±ααααΆαααΆααα·αα αααΆααααΆαααα αααα»αααααααα·αααααααααα·α αα α ααΌα ααααα αΎαααΆαααΆ αα½ααααααααΈαααααααΆαααααααααααα ααΎα αΆαα·αααα²ααααΆααααααααααΆαα αα ααααα»αααααΆααΆααααααααααα·ααααααα αααααΆααααααααααΌα ααΆαααααααααααΆαα· αα·ααααΌαααΆα ααΌα ααααΆααΉααααααΆαααααΆαααα αααααααααααΆαα·αα·ααααααααΆααα’αααααΆααααΆααααΆαα»ααα α αΎααα ααααααααΆααΈαααΆαααΆα ααααααΆαααα’ααααΆα’αααα’ααααΆαααΆαααααΎ α’αα·ααααΆ αα·ααα·ααααα·ααααααα·α αα ααΊαααααααΆααα ααΆααααααα ααΌα ααΆα Covid-19 ααΆααΎαα αααααΆαααααΆαααΆαααΉααααααΉαααΎααΆααα½αααΌα αααααΌαααΆααα ααΈαααααΆαααααααΆαααααΊα αα·ααααααααΆααααααααααααα αααα»αααααααα·α αα αααααα αααααΆαααααΎα±ααααααααα·α αα αααααααΉαα αΆαα·αααααααΆαααααΆααα α»αααααααα·α αα α (English Version) As you may already know the four pillars of trading, which specifically on two main analyses including the fundamental and technical analysis. However, each category is being considered through many factors such as those listed below. Central Bank announcement Changes in policy either through monetary policy or fiscal policy will largely affect economic activities, especially the investor sentiment toward investment portfolios. The central bank can either tighten or ease the monetary which aims to achieve price stability, maximize the employment changes, and the overall economic condition. Economic Data To set the right tool for monetary policy adjustment, the central bank may need to asses on the economic data including the unemployment rate, inflation rate, Gross domestic product, retail sales, or purchasing managersβ index. These crucial data will determine the likelihood of a rate decision. Stronger economic growth and high inflation may require tighter monetary policy and vice versa.Β Theory aside, the real economic outlook and central bank response do not normally showcase just like what we have learned. The central bank may be required to assess another factor before making any adjustments. Therefore, it is often mistaken and traders should take serious caution toward the trading journey.Β Politics This involves very unexpected, depending on how the politician reacts toward each circumstance, and that is what causes uncertainty in the economic outlook. With that in mind, it is highly recommended not to put all eggs in one basket when the voting campaign is around. Other factors such as natural disasters and seasonality. The same as political factors, natural disaster never alerts anyone in advance and once it is spread, the likelihood of having a high unemployment rate, high inflation, and recession is very high. Take the Covid-19 for an example. Due to restrictions on trading, demand deteriorated, and lack of supply in the economy, this will put the economy at risk of recession.
How much does the geopolitical tension affect on the economy?
ααΆαααΆαααΉαααΌαα·ααΆααααααααααΆαααΎαα‘αΎααα ααααααααΆαααααααα’ααααααΆαα· ααααΌα ααΆααΆααααααΎαα’αααΆα ααΈααααΆαα αα·ααα αα αααα’αΆα αααααΆαα±ααααΆαααΆαααΌα ααΆααααΆαααααααααααα·αααααΉααααααααααααα·α αα αααα½αααα»ααααααα ααα»αααααααα½αααΆαα½αααΉαα’ααααααααΆαααααααααΆααα‘αΆαα αααααααααααΆα’αΆα ααΆααα ααααΆααααα»ααααααααΆα ααΆααα’αΆα ααΆααα ααααααααααααααααααα½αααΆαααααααααΆαααΌα ααΆαααααα½αααααααααααααα·α αα α¬αααααααα ααΎααΆααα»αααααΆααΆαααααααα·ααααΆαααααααΒ ααΌα αααα ααΎβααΎαβαααα»αβααΆαβααααααβα’αααΈβαα βαααβααα? ααΆαααααααααΆααααα αα α»ααααααααΆαααααααααΌαα·ααΆααααααααααΆα αα·αααΆαααΆαααΉααααααααααααΌα ααΆ αααααααΆαααααα·αααΌαααΆ αααααααΆααα»αααααΈ αα·αα’αα»αααααα α αααααα»ααααααααΆαα (αααααΆαα αα·αα α·α) αααααααΆαααΆαα·ααααααααααΆαα’αΆαααα·α αα·αα α·αααΆααΎαα ααα»ααααβααΎβαααααααΆαβαααβαααααΆαααα αααααααΆαααΆαααααααα·α αα αααααααα·αααΆ? αααααααΆαααΆαααααααααααααααααΆααααΌα ααΆα ααΌα ααααααα»ααα ααΆααα’ααααααααα»ααααααΎαα αΆαα·αααααααΆαααΎαα‘αΎαα’αα·ααααΆ αααααΌαααΆα αα·αααΆαααααΆαααααΆααααααααααααααααΉαααΆααα ααααΆαααααΆααα α»αααααααααα·α αα α α±ααΆααα·αα·ααα αααααΈααΆααΆαααΆαααΉααααααααΌαα·ααΆααααααααααΆαα’αΆα α αΆαααα»αααΆααΆααααΆαααΆαααααΆα α¬αα»αα·αααα’αΆααααααααααΆααααα»αααααΆα αααΎα ααΆαα·αααα ααααααααααα’αααααΆαα αα α¬α’ααααα·αα·αααααααα ααααΆαα±ααΆαααΆα αααΎαααααα·αα·αααα·ααα·ααα½αααΎαααααααααααα αα·ααααααΆαα αα»αααΆααα’αααα»ααααααα·αααα’αααα»αα’αα‘α»ααααααΆααααααααΆαααααα αα·αα·αααα·αααα’αΆα αααααΎαα±ααΆααα·αα·ααααααα»ααα·αααααΌα ααΆ αα·αααααΆαααΆαααΆαα· ααααα·αα»αααΆαα’ααΈαααΊαα·α α¬α αααααΆαα ααΆααααααααααααΆααααααααααααΆααα½αααΆαααα ααααα αααΎααααα»αα’αα‘α»αααααααα αααααΆααα·αααα ααΆαααΆαααααααααααααα·αααααΆααα»ααααα·ααΆαααααΆααααααΆαααα·αααΆαααααΆαααααα»αα ααααα’ααααα·αα·ααα αααα·αααααααααααΌα ααΆααααα α§ααααα α¬ααα αααααΆαααααα αααα’αΆα αα½αααΆαααααααα αΆαα·ααααααααα ααΎαααΈαααααα αα·αα·αααα·αααα’αΆα αα·α αΆαααΆααΎααΆαααααΎααααΆαααα ααΎ CFDs ααααα½αααα’αΆα ααααΎααΆααα·α α¬ααααα ααΆααα·ααα ααααααΈααααΆαααΆααααααα αααααΆααααααΆααααα·αααΎα’αααα αααα½αααΌαααΌαα·αααααα α αΎαααααΉαααΆααΉαααααΆααα α»α α’αααααα’αΆα αααααΌαα·ααααααααΎααααΈααα½αααΆαααααΆααα αααααααααααααααα αααααΆααααααα·ααααα·ααΆαα’αΆααΈααααα αα½αααααα’αΆα αα·α αΆαααΆααΎααΆααα·ααααα·ααα»ααα»αααΎααααΈααα½αααΆαααααΆααα ααααααΆαααααααααΎααα ααααααααααΎαα‘αΎαα αααααΆαααΆααααααααΈ αα·αα·αααα·αααααΌαααΆαααΆααααα»αααααααααααΆαα»α αααααααΈααααΆαα’αΆα ααΆααααααααααα½αααααΆααααααα·αααΆααααααα»ααα»αα αααααααΆαβαααβααΆβαα·αα·αααα·ααα½ααααΈααΆαααΆααα ααΎααααααΆααααααα ααααααΆααααααΎααΆαααααΆααααααΌααα»αααααΆααααα ααΎααααΈααΆαααβααααα αΆαα·ααααααα’αΆα ααΎαααΆαα‘αΎαα (English Version) Geopolitical tension occurs from a strain of international conflict or the power snitch from being inferior/supreme, which will ultimately result in severe damage not only to one side of the economy but also to those who are involved. While it can escalate to armed conflict such as a war outbreak, it often has a broader range of tensions between countries such as diplomatic disputes, economic competition, or ideological differences. So what are the conflicts we are having right now? Letβs count on major geopolitical conflicts and tensions currently are the Middle East war, the Russia and Ukraine War, the Taiwan Strait (Taiwan and China), Trade war between US-China Relations, for instance. But to what degree does this war affect the economic outlook? There are various effects that this could potentially influence such as: So to sum up, all of these are heightening the risk of spiking inflation, demand, and supply disruption which will lead to economic degrowth. Investment Opportunities Although geopolitical tensions will often be seen as a disruptive situation and a nightmare to many, especially to exporter countries, or investors, there are plenty of potential opportunities that investors shall never overlook. Not all stocks are bad during a war outbreak, investors can also create investment opportunities in sectors such as defense, cybersecurity, or critical infrastructure that are very likely to be profitable during this period. While GOLD as a safe-haven asset is also very popular among investors, other commodities such as oil, gas, or precious metals can help mitigate risk as well. Additionally, investors may also consider using derivative security through CFDs that can walk both waysβbuy and sell, meaning that if you want to trade the currency and expect to decline, you can also sell the currency to gain a reasonable profit. As for business operations, they may also consider purchasing up-front goods to gain a better profit when the price rises. Regardless, investors should be pre-cautious as a sharp market fluctuation could be triggered without notice. This means that staying up-to-date with news and being very flexible in investment adjustment would be very essential to reduce the risk associated.
Understanding the National Debt
ααΌα αα ααΉαα’αααΈαααααΆαααα αΈααααΆαααααααααααΆααααΈααα αΆαααααα»α α¬αααΆααΆααααααΆαααααΎααααααααΉαααααα±αααααα»αααΆααααααΎαα‘αΎα α αΎααααα»αααΆαα·αα·αααααΌα ααααΆαααα ααα! αα ααααααααααΈαααα»αααΆαα·α αααα»αααΆαα·ααΊαα·αααΆαα·ααααααααααΆαα αααααΆαααααΆααΉαααΆαααΆααα ααΎαα»αααΆαα α·ααααααααα»ααααααααα·α αα ααΆααααΌα ααΌα ααααααΆαααΆααααααα»αααΆαααΆααααααααα αααααΆααααααΆαααααΆαα·ααΆαααα αΈααααΆααααΈααα αΆαααααα»αααΆααααα αααΎα αααααΉαααααΎα±αααα½αααααΆαααΆαααααΆααααααΎααααα»αααΆαα αΆαααΆααααααααααα ααΎα ααα»α’αααΈααΆαααΆααΌα αααα? ααΎα’αααα αΆααα αα ααααααααΎααα·ααΆαα’αααΈα±αααΆαααΆαααΎααααααΆαααΈα’αααααααΎααα»α ααααααααΆαα·ααΆαα αααΆαααΎαα αααΌαααΎα αααααΆαα ααΆααααααααααααααααΌα ααΆ ααΆααΆαααααΆααΆααα αααααΈαααααααα·αααααΌααααααααΆααΎα? α αΎααα ααααααααΆαα αΆαααΆααααααΎαααΆαααΎαα‘αΎα ααααα½αααααΉαααα αΈααααΆααααΈααΈααααΆαααΌααααααααα»αααΆααααααΆαα ααααααααααα»ααααααΆαα·ααΆαααααα·αα·αααα·αα ααΎαααΈααα α’ααααΆααααα (α’ααααΆααααααααΆαα·ααΆαααααΌαααααα α±ααα’ααααα·α α¬αα·αα·αααα·α)ααΉαααΎααα½ααΌα ααΆα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααααΌα ααααΆ α αΎααααααΉαααααΆαααΆαααα»ααααααααααΆαα·ααΆαα αα αααααααααα»αααΎαα‘αΎα α αΎααααααΆαα·ααΆααα·αα’αΆα ααααΆααααα ααααααα»αααΆαα·ααΉαααΆαααααααααα α§ααΆα αααα αααααΆαα·ααΆαα α αααααααααααΆααΆαα ααα½α 100 αααααΈαα½ααααΆαααααα 100 αα»ααααΆαα αα·αα·αααα·αα αα·ααααααααααΆααΆα (Treasury Notes) α ααα½α 10 αααα»ααααααααα»α $1,000 αα·ααααααα 5 ααααΆαα ααΆαααΌααΆααααΆαααααΆααα αααααΆαα·ααΆαα αααααΆαααααΆαααααα αΆαααααΆαααααα·αα·αααα·αα α’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαααααα αΆαααααΆαα 10% αααααΆαααααΆαααααα αΆαααααΆαα 1,000 αα»ααααΆα * 10% = 100 αα»ααααΆα αα·αα·αααα·αα ααα½αααΆαααΆαααααΆαα 100 αα»ααααΆααααα»ααα½αααααΆαα αα ααααααααααααααα»αααααααααααααααα αααααΆαα·ααΆαα αααα·αα·αααα·αααΌααααααααΎαααΊ 1,000 αα»ααααΆαα αα·αα·αααα·αα ααα½αααΆα 1,000 αα»ααααΆαααΈαααααΆαα·ααΆαα ααα αΌαααΆα αααααΆααααα»ααααααΆαααα·αα·αααα·αα ααΆααα·αα·αααααααΌαα α‘α α α αα»ααααΆα ααΆαααΌααΆααααΆαααααΆαααααα αΆαααααΆαα +100 αα»ααααΆα ααΆαααΌααΆααααΆαααΆααααααα + $1,000 ααα αΌαααΆα αααααΆαααα»αααα -$1,000 +$100Γ5 + $1,000 = +$500 ααΌα αααααα·αα·αααα·αααΉαααα½αααΆαααααΆααα αααα 500 αα»ααααΆα (α αΎααααααΊααΆααΆαα αααΆαααΆαααααΆαααα½α8ααααααααΆαααααααΆαα·ααΆα) ααΌα ααααα₯α‘αΌαααα α’ααααααα αααΆααα’αααΈαααα»αααΆαα·α ααα»ααααβαααα βααΈβααΆαβα ααβααΌαααααβαααα»α ααΎβααΆαβαα·ααΈααΆαααααβα’αααΈβαααβαααβαααααΆαα·ααΆαβα’αΆα βααα αΈβααΆα? αααααΈααΆααΈααααΆαααΌααααααααα»αα’αΆα ααΆαααααααααΆαααααααααΆαα·ααΆααααααα’αα»ααααααααα αααα½αααααααααααααα½αααΈαααΆααΆααααααΆααααααΎαααααΆαααααααααΆααΆ βmonetizing the debtβ α¬ααΈααααΆαααα α·ααααααααα»α’ααααααΆαα·ααΌα ααΆααΌααα·αα·ααΌαα·αααααα»α’ααααααΆαα· (IMF)ααΆααΎαα α₯α‘αΌαααΆααααααααΎαααΆααα’ααααααΆ ααΎααΉαααΆαα’αααΈααΎαα‘αΎααα ααααααααααΆααα αααΌααααααααααΆαα·ααΆαααΆααααααα (α¬ααΆααααααααααα) αα·αααΆαααΎαα‘αΎαααΆαα αααΆααααααααααΆαα·ααΆα? ααΎβαααβαα·αβαα½αβααΆαββαααα»αβααΆαα·βααΎαβα‘αΎαβαα? α₯α‘αΌαβααβαααα»αβααβα αααΎαβαααβααΎαβαααα»αβααΆαβαα βαααβααα α αΎααα·αααΆβααα·ααΆβαααααΆαα·ααΆαβααΉαβα αΆααβααααΎααααααΆα (α¬ααααΆααα’αα·αααααΆαααΊαα ααααΆαααα) βα αΆααβααΈβαααβαααβ ααΌα αααα ααΎβα’αααΈβααΉαβααΆβααΆαβααααΆααβααααΌαβααβααβαααααΆααβααααΎαβααααααα·α αα βαα βααα»ααααΆαβααααΆαβααΆαβαα»α? ααΆααααααα αααααΆααα·αααααα Fiscal Data Treasury.gov ααΆαα αααΆαααααΆααααααααααααΆαα·ααΆααα αααααααΊαααααααΎα ααααΆααα αααΌα ααααα·αα»αααααα αα»αααΆα ααΆαααΆαααΆαααΆαα· αα·αααΆαααααΆααα»αααΆαα α αΎαα₯α‘αΌαααα αααα»αααΆαα·αααααα ααααα’αΆαααα·αααΆαααΎαα‘αΎαααΈ 34.11 ααααΈααΆααα»ααααΆααααα»αααααΆα 2023 ααα 35.46 ααααΈααΆααα»ααααΆααααα»αααααΆα 2024α (English Version) Just like how typical consumers borrow money from creditors or banks that build up the debt expense over time, national debt does the same. Letβs get a quick overview of the national debt. As heard by many, national debt is really important data, as this will also be used to assess the financial health of the whole economy, so the higher the national debt, the higher the government borrows from creditors, and the more reluctant they are willing to spend as much as they want. Why is that? Do you remember when we talked about the fiscal deficit, where the government overspends its income on infrastructure such as public schools, hospitals, roads, etc.? And when they do, they will likely borrow the money from the bond market by issuing government bonds to the investor. Plus, the coupon rate that acts as the interest rate expense will be the government debt. Once the debt builds up and the government is unable to pay it on time, the higher the national debt will be. Example: Government: Issues 100 Treasury Notes, each with a face value of $100. Investor: Purchases 10 Treasury Notes for a total of $1,000 over the 5-year period Interest Payment: Government: Pays the investor an annual interest payment. Annual interest rate: 10% Annual interest payment: $1,000 * 10% = $100 Investor: Receives $100 per year in interest. Maturity: Government: Repays the investor the face value of the Treasury Note, which is $1,000. Investor: Receives $1,000 from the government. Total Cash Flow for the Investor: Initial Investment: -$1,000 Annual Interest Payment: +$100 Maturity Payment: +$1,000 Net Cash Flow: -$1,000 +$100Γ5 + $1,000 = +$500 So the investor will gain a profit of $500 (and that is another interest expense for the government) So now you get a good grasp of the national debts. But aside from issuing the bond, what are the other methods the government can borrow from? Although the bond market can be the common path the government always strives for, they also seek help from the central bank, also known as βmonetizing the debt,β or from an international financial institution such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) itself. Imagine together: what would happen when the government income is reduced (or tax cut) and government expenses increased (stimulus programs)? Should not this lead to a growing national debt? Letβs exclude the huge piles of debt we are having right now, Think of how the government budget will start to have a negative amount starting from now So what will be the big changes for the economic growth in the next few years? Fun Fact: As per data from the Fiscal Data Treasury.gov, major spending from the federal government is mainly on income security, social security, health, national defense, and Medicare. And now the U.S. national debt has increased from $34.11 trillion in 2023 to $35.46 trillion in 2024.Β
Understanding the Forex Ecosystem: Liquidity, Volatility, and Market Participants
ααααααΈαααΆα α¬ααΆα αααααΆααααΆααααα½α(Liquidity) αα·αααΆαααΆααααααααααα½αααααααααα»αααΈααααΆαβ (Volatility) αα αααα»αααΈααααΆαααΌαα·ααααααα’ααααααΆαα· (Forex) ααΆαααΆαααααααΈαααΆα α¬ααΆα αααααΆααααΆααααα½α(Liquidity) αααααααΆααααααΆ α’αααα’αΆα ααααΆααααααΌαααα·ααΆαααααααα’αααααΆααααΆαααΆααααα½αααααΆααα αααααΊαααααΆαααααΈα ααα½αα’ααααα·α α¬α’αααααααα αααα»αααΈααααΆαααΆαα ααα½αα αααΎα α αΎαα’αΆα α’αα»ααααΆαα±ααα’αααα αΌα αα·αα ααααΈααααΆαααΆααααΆαααΆαααα αααααα»αααααααααα’αααααΎααα ααΎα’ααααααα αααααΉαααΉαααα αααααααααα½αααααααααα»αααΈααααΆαα’αΆα α±αααααααααΆαααΆαααααΆααααααΌαααΆαααααααααα αααα’αΆα α±ααα’αααααα½αααΆαααααΆααα ααααααΆααααα αααΎα α¬ααΆαααΆααααααΆααααααααΌα ααααΆα α’αααα αΌααα½ααααα»αααΈααααΆαα αα·αα·αααα·αααααΆααα (α’ααααα)α αα½αααΆα αααα»αα αα»αααΌααα·αα·ααΆαααΆαα αΆαα·ααα (Hedge Funds) αααΆααΆααα·αα·ααα αα·ααααΆααΆααααααΆαα αα½αααααααΎααΆαα·ααααααααααα»αααα·ααΆααααα α αΎαα’αΆα αααααΆαααααΆαααααΆααααααααααααααα½ααααααααΌαα·ααααααα αααα½ααααααΆα (a.k.a middleman)α ααΆαααα½αααΎαααΆααααααΆααααΆαα’ααααα·α αα·αα’ααααααααΌα ααΆαααα»αα αα»α α’ααααΈ αααΆααΈαα αα½αααα’αΆα ααΉααααααα’αααααααααααααΌααα αααα’ααααα½αααΌαααΌα ααΆ αααΆαααΆαααααααΆαααααΆα α§ααααααα·ααΆα ααααααΆααααααΉααααΆαααααααΈα’αααααααΆαα αααΆααΆαα ααααΎααΆαααααΆααααααΌααα ααΎααΌααΌαα·αααααα ααααααΆααααααΎαα½αααΌαααΆαα½αααΉαααΆαα·αααααααα’ααααααΆαα·α αα·αα·αααα·αααααΆαααΌα α ααΆαα·αααααααααα½αααΌαααΎααα»αααααΆαααΌα ααΆαααΆαααα αααΎαα’αΆα ααΉαααα½αααααΌααααααααΆααααΈααΈααααΆαα *** ααα»ααα ααααααΈαααΆα α¬ααΆα αααααΆααααΆααααα½αααΆααααααααα α αΆαα·αααα ααααα’ααααα½αααΌαααααΆαααααααααααΌα ααααΆ ααααααααααα αΆαα·ααααααααα·αα·αααα·αααααΆαααα’αΆα ααΉαααΆαααααα·αα (English Version) Liquidity and Volatility In the Forex market, having high liquidity means you can easily exchange your money quickly as the market is filled with many buyers and sellers. This allows you to quickly enter and exit positions at the price you see on the screen. Meanwhile, high volatility in the market makes the price fluctuate even more or swing rapidly. This can either lead to a bigger profit or a bigger losses. Different Players/ Market Maker:Β ***Overall, the higher liquidity, a higher risk for retail investors while institutional investors tend to have a lower risk.
The Ultimate Guide to Forex Trading Sessions: Best Times to Trade
ααΈααααΆαααΌαα·ααααααα’ααααααΆαα·ααΊααΆααααααααα·ααα ααααα·ααααα·ααΆα 24 αααααααα»ααα½ααααα ααααΆααααααααα»ααα½ααααααΆα αα ααα»ααααααααα·αααΆααααααΆααααααΆααα’ααααΊααα’ααΌα ααααΆαααααΆααααΆααα½αααΌααααααα ααΎααααΈααααΆαααΆα’ααααα½αααΌααααααα½αααΆααααααα ααΆααΆααΏαααααΆαααααα»αααΆααααααΉαααΈααααααααααα βForex Session ααααΎαααΆα αα·ααααααααααΆαααααΆαααααα αααΆααααα αα·αααααααΈαααΆα (Liquidity)α αα αααα»αα’ααααααααααΎαααΉαα αΌααα αα·ααααΆαααα’α·αα’αααΈ Forex Trading Session αα·ααααααααΆααα’αααα»ααααα»αααΆααα½αααΌαα αααα αΆααααααΎα! α’αααΈαα ααΆ Trading Session? ααΈααααΆα Forex ααααΎαααΆαααΆαααααααααα½αααΌαααααΆαααα ααα½ααα½α αααααααΌαααΉααααααααααα α·ααααααααα»ααααΆααααααααα·αααααα ααΈαααα»αα‘α»ααα ααΌαααα αααΈαααΈ αα·αααΌααααΌα ααΈαααα»αααΆαααααααΈαα½ααααΆααααααααΆααΆααααΆαααα½α αα ααααααααΈααααΆαααααααΆααααααααα»α ααααααααΎααααααα½αααΌααα αααααααα ααααααΆααααααααα½αααΎααααΆαα αααααααΆααΆααααΆαα ααααααααα±ααΆααα·ααααα½ααααααΆααααααΎααΆαααΌαααΌαα 1. Sydney Session ααΈαααα»ααααΈαααΈααΎαααΎααααααΆα αααΈααααΆα Forex αα ααααα αααα αααααααααααΆααααΌαααΆαα αΆαααα»αααΆααΆαααααααααΆαααΆααααααααα½ααα·α αα½α αααα»ααααααΆαααααα·ααΆααα½αααΌαααΆα ααΆαα ααα’αΆα αααα αΆαααΈα±ααΆα ααΆαα·ααααααααΆααααΌαααααΆααααααΉαααααΆαααα»ααααΆαα’αΌααααααΆααΈ αα·αααΌαααααα‘ααα 2. Tokyo Session αααααα½αααΌααα ααΈαααα»αααΌααααΌααΎαααΎααααααααΆαα αααΎαααΆαααΈαααα»ααααΈαααΈ αα·αααΆαααααα½αααΌααααααα»ααα α’αΆαααΈα ααΌ JPY ααΆααααααααΆαααααΆαααααα»αα’αα‘α»αααααααααααα ααΎαααΈααα ααααααΆαααΈααααΆαα’αΆαααΈααΆααα·ααααΆααΆααααααΆαααααααααΆαααααααααα»α αα·αααΌαα·ααααααα’αΆαααΈαααααααααααα»αα’αα‘α»ααααααααααΆαααααα 3. London Session αααααα ααΈαααα»αα‘α»αααααΊααΆααααααααααααααααΆαααΎαα‘αΎαα αααα»αααΆαααΆαααααααααα α·ααααααααα»αααααααα»ααα½α ααΈαααα»αα‘α»αααααΎαααΎαα αααΆααΈααααΆαααΆα αααΎα αα·ααααααΌααα αααααααααΈαααΆα (Liquidity) αααααα α’ααααα½αααΌαααΆα αααΎαα αΆαααα»ααααααα½αααΌααα ααΈαααα»αα‘α»αααααΊααΆαααααααΆααααα’αααα»ααααααΆααααΆααα½αααΌααααα αΆααααα ααΆαα·ααααααααΆααααΌααΌαα·ααααααααααΆαααααΌα ααΆ GBP/USD αα·α EUR/USDα 4. New York Session ααΆααααα α»ααααααααααααααα αααααα½αααΌααα ααΈαααα»αααΌαααααααα½αααΎααααΆααΆαα½αααΈαααα»αα‘α»αααααααααααΈααα ααΈαααα ααααααααΎααααααααααα½α αα·αααααααΈαααΆα (liquidity) ααααα ααΆαα·ααααααααΆααααΌααΌαα·αααααααα»ααααΆαα αααααααααα½ααααΈααααΆαααα αααΎαααααααααααα»α α αΎαααΆαααααααΆααααΆαααααααΆααααΆαα·αααααααΎααααΈα αΌαααΈααααΆα ααααααΆαααααααα·α αα ααΈαα ααααα’αΆαααα·αααααα₯αααα·αααααΆαααααΆαααααα αααΆααΈααααΆααααα»αα’αα‘α»ααααααααααααα αααααααΆααα’αααα»αααΎααααΈααααΎααΆααα½αααΌαα α’αα‘α»αααααααα½ααααΈααααΆ αααααααααααααααΈαα½αααααααα±ααΆαααααΎααΆααα½αααΌα αααααααΆααααααααααα½ααααα»αααΊαα αααααααααααααα½αααΎααααΆα αααααααΆα’αΆααααααααα»αααΎααααΈααααΎααΆααα½αααΌα αααααααααααΈααααΆα Forex ααΎα 24/5 ααααααααα·αααΌαα’αααααααααααΆααααΆααα½αααΌααααααΆαααααΆααααααααα½α αα·αααα ααα½αααΌαααΆαα ααΆααΌαα ααΆααΆααΆαααα’αααα»αααΆααααααΆαααΆααα½αααΌααα αααααααΆααΆααααααα αααααΉααααααΆααααααααααααααΆαα½αααΌαααααα’ααα Conclusion ααΆααααααΉαα’αααΈ Forex sessionsααΊααΆαααΆααααααΆαααααααΆααααΆααα½αααΌαααααααααααααα·αααααΆαα αααααΉαααααΆααααΊααΆ αααααααααααΈααααΆα Forex ααααΎαααΆα 24/5 αα·ααααααααααΆααα’αααα»αααααααα½αααΆαααα ααααααααΎααααΆαααααα αααααααΎααΆααα½αααΌααααα»αα’αα‘α»αααααααααααα½αααααΆ α¬αααααααΆααααΆα αααααΆααααΆααααα½α αα·αααΆααααααααα½αααααα ααΎααααΈαααααΎαα±ααΆαααααααααααα’αααα ααΆααααααΆααααααΉααα»αααααΆααααααα½αααΌαααααα’αααααΆαα½αααΉαα ααααΆααααααΈααααΆα α’αααα’αΆα ααααΎααΆααααααα α α·ααααααααΆαααΆααααααΉαααΆααααα αααΎα αα·ααααααΎααααααΆαα»ααααααΆααα ααααααααα’αααα (English Version) The Forex market is unique, operating 24 hours a day, five days a week. But that doesnβt mean all hours are equally good for trading. To become a successful trader, itβs important to understand how Forex sessions work and how they impact price movements and liquidity. In this post, weβll dive into the major Forex trading sessions and explore when the best times to trade are. Letβs get started! What Are Forex Trading Sessions? The Forex market operates through four main trading sessions, corresponding to the worldβs major financial hubs: London, New York, Sydney, and Tokyo. Each of these cities has a specific time frame when its market is most active, which creates trading sessions during the day. These sessions overlap at certain times, offering unique trading opportunities. 1. Sydney Session Sydney opens the Forex market week on Monday. While itβs often considered the least volatile session due to lower trading volume, it can still present opportunities, especially for pairs related to the Australian and New Zealand dollars. 2. Tokyo Session The Tokyo session sees more activity than Sydney and is the largest trading session in Asia. The JPY pairs are highly active during this session. Additionally, Asian market news tends to affect the Japanese yen and other Asian currencies during these hours. 3. London Session The London session is where the action really picks up. As one of the biggest financial centers, London sees a lot of market movement and high liquidity. Many traders consider the London session to be the best time for day trading, especially for major currency pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD. 4. New York Session As the final session of the day, the New York session overlaps with London for a few hours, creating high volatility and liquidity, particularly for the USD pairs. This overlap period is often the most active and is prime time for traders to enter positions. Economic news from the U.S. also significantly affects market movements during this time. Best Times to Trade: The Overlap Periods While each session offers trading opportunities, the most volatile times are when the sessions overlap: Worst Times to Trade While the Forex market is open 24/5, some times are less favorable for trading due to lower volatility and volume. Generally, itβs wise to avoid trading: Tips for Timing Your Trades Conclusion Understanding Forex sessions is crucial for effective trading. The key takeaway is that while the Forex market runs 24/5, not all hours are equally profitable. Focus on trading during session overlaps or times of high liquidity and volatility to increase your chances of success. By aligning your trading strategy with the rhythm of the market, you can make more informed decisions and potentially increase your profitability.
Economic Uncertainty: Tariffs Threat and Global Diplomacy under Trump
αααΆααΆααααααΆααα α’αΆαααα·αΒ Β αααΆαα·ααααΆααΆααααααΆααα α’αΆαααα·ααααβ Austan Goolsbee ααΆαααΎαα‘αΎαααΈαααααα ααααααα»ααααααααααα ααΎααΆααααααα α α·αααα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαα αααααα’αααα ααΎααΆααα·αα αααΆααααΆααααααααααΆαααΆαααααααα·α αα αα αα α»ααααααα ααΆαα·ααααααααΆαααααα»αα αα»αααα·ααααα»ααα·αααααα αα·αα’αΆαα»αααΈαααΌα ααααααα»αααααααα»αααΉααααα 25% α αΎαααααααΆααΉααα½αααααααααααααΆααα’αα·αααααΆαα α ααα»ααΌα ααααα αΎαααα Goolsbee ααΆαααααααααΆααααΆ “α’αααααααααααααααααΏααααααΆααααααααααΆαααααΈαααα½αααΆααααα’αααΈαααααααααΆαααααΆαα” ααααααααααΌαααααααα·αααααα’αΆααααααα½ααααααΆαααα·ααααααααααααααΊ CB Consumer Confidence (CCI) α ααααα·αααΎ CCI ααΆα = αα»αα·αααα·αα·αααα·α ααΎααααααα·ααααα αα α»αααααα αα·αα αααΆααααα·ααΒ ααααααααΆααΆαα·αααΈ Donald Trump |English Version| The Federal Reserve Federal Reserve member Austan Goolsbee suggested a cautious approach regarding Trumpβs policies, emphasizing a “wait-and-see” strategy ahead of the current restrictive and uncertain global economic conditions. This is particularly relevant for manufacturers in the steel and aluminum sectors, who are grappling with a 25% tariff and are likely to experience negative impacts. Therefore, Goolsbee noted, βAuto parts suppliers are concerned about tariffs,β giving a dampened view on tonight’s dataβCB Consumer Confidence (CCI). Lower CCI = less optimism on the current outlook and vice versa. President Donald Trump
Weekly Data Summary Report As ofβ Feb 22, 2024
αααΆαααΆααααααααααα·αααααααααα αΆααααααΆα α ααααΌαααΉαααααααΈ 22 αααα»αααα ααααΆα2024 αα αααα»ααααΆαααΆαααααα ααΎαααΉαααΆαααΆααα ααΎαααααΆααααααα·α αα ααααΆααα αα½αααΆααα ααααα’αΆαααα·α αααααα’αΊααα»α αααα»α α’αΌααααααΆααΈ α αααααα’ααααααα αα·αβααΆααΆααΆ αααααΆαα αααΎααααααααααΆαααα ααΎααΌα ααΆααααααααα·α αα αα·αααααΉαααα·ααΆαααααααααα·α αα αα½αα ααα½ααααααΆαααΎαα‘αΎααααα»ααααααΆα ααααα ααααααα’αΌααααααΆααΈ ααΆαααΉαααΆαααααΈααααΆαααΆαααΆα αα·αα’αα·ααααΆαααααΆαααααα·ααααααααΆααααα»αα±αααααΆααΆααααααΆααα ααααααα’αΌααααααΆααΈααΆαααααααα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααααΆαααα Hawkish (ααΆαααααααα αΎα αα·αα’αΆα αααααΆααΆαα·α αα ααααα»ααααααΆαα)α ααααα½αααααΏααΆααααΆ βααΆααααααΌααααααααααααααΆαααΌαα·αααααα»ααΏααααα’αΆα ααΉααααααΆααααααα»αααΆααααααΆαα’ααααΆα’αα·ααααΆααααα’ααααΆααααα βαΒ ααΌα αααα ααΆαα ααααααΆααα·αααααααααααααααααααααΆααΉααααααααΆααααααα α α·ααααααααΆαα ααΎαααααΈααΆαα½ααααα ααααΉαααα’ααααΎααΆααααααΆα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαααααααΆααααααααααααα ααΆαα·ααααα ααααααααΆααααααααΆαααΆαα·αααααααααΆαααααααΈαααααΒ αααααααααα»α ααααΎαααααααα·α αα ααΆαααΉαααΆαααααΈααααΆαααΆαααΆα αα·αα’αα·ααααΆααααααα»αααααα’αΆα αααα»αα±ααααΆαααΆαααα‘αΎαα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαααααααααΆααΆααααααΆααααα»α (BOJ) α αααααΆαααΆαααΆααααα α’αα·ααΆααααΆααΆααααααΆααααα»αααα Ueda ααΆαααΎαα‘αΎαααΆ αααααΉααααααΎαααΆααα·αααΌααααααααα»α ααααα·αααΎαα·ααααααααααΆαααααααΎαα‘αΎαααααΆαα ααΎααααΈαααααΆαααα·αααΆαααααΆαααΆαα α·ααααααααα» α αΎαααααααα αΆαααΈααΆααα·αα αααΆααααΆαααα αααα»αααΆααααααα α α·αααααΎααααααααΆαααΆαααα’ααΆααααΆααα»αα α αΎαβααααα·αααΎβαα·ααααααβα’αα·ααααΆααααααΎαα‘αΎα αααβαααΆααΆαβαααααΆαβαααα»αβαααα ααααΆβααααΌαααΉααααααΉαααΎααααααααΆαααΌαα·αααααα»αααααααααα ααΌα ααααααααα·αααΎ BOJ ααα‘αΎαα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαα β ααΌαα·ααααααααααα’αΆα ααΉαααΎαα‘αΎα αα·ααααααααΆααα’αα·ααααΆα ααααααααΆααΆααΆ αααααΌαααΆααα αααα»αααααααααΆααΆααΆααΆαααΎαα‘αΎααααΆαααααΆαααααααααα·α 2.5% αααα’αΆα αααααΆαααααΈααΆαααααΆα αααααααΈααΆααααα αΆααααΈααΆαααααααΆαααααααΌαααααΆαααααααΆααααα»αααα αα·ααα·ααΆαααΆααααααΌααααααααααα αΎαααααααααααααααΆααΆαααΆααΆααΆ (BOC) αααααΆααΆααααα»αααααααααΆαααααααααααααΆααΆααΆα αααααααααααΆααααα»αααΆαααααα’αΆα αααααααΌαααΆααααα»αααααΎαααααααα·α αα αααα»αααααααααααΈ ααααΈααΆαααααα ααααΆαα’αααΈααααααα·ααααααααααααα ααΆαααΎαα‘αΎαααααααα»ααΆαα»ααΎα αα·αααααααΎαααα·αααααααΆαααΆαααααααααααΆααα ααααααααα’αΆααΈαααααα α αΎααααα’αΆα ααΉαβαααα’αΆααβααααΎαααααααα·α αα αααα»αβααααααβααα α αΎαβα’αΆα βααΆαβα±ααβααΆαβαααα αΆ Stagflationα ααΎαααΈααα αααα 25% αααα’αΆαααα·αααΆααααΎααΆαααΆαα αΌαααααααΆααΆααΆααΉαααααΎα±αααααααΆαα’αα·ααααΆααΆααααααααααααααααααΆαααΎαα‘αΎααααααααααα»ααΆαα»ααΎααααααααααα α αααααα’ααααααα α’αΆααΈαααααααΆα αααΎααααα»ααααααΎαααΆααααα½αααΆααααα’αααΈα’αα·ααααΆααααΆαααααα½αααααααα»αα±αααααααΌαααΆααααα»ααααα»αααΆααααα’αΆαααααααΆααα»α αααααΊα’αΆα ααααα±ααααΆα Stagflationα αα·ααααααααααΈααααααΆααααα αΆαααΈααΆαααΎαα‘αΎααα½αα±ααααααααααΆαααα αααα»αααααΎαααααΆαααααα½αααΆααααα ααααααααααααααααααααααααααα·αααααΎααααΆααααΆαααΎαα‘αΎααααααααα 3.0% αααααΆαααααααααα ααααΈαααααααΆααααααααΆαααΎαα‘αΎαααΈαα»αα α αΎαααααα·αααΎαααααΌαααΆαααΆααααααα α αΎαα’αΆααΈααααααα·αα’αΆα ααα½αααΆαααΆααααααα ααααα½αααααααΆααααααΎαα’αααΈαααα ααΈααΆαααααααααααα·αααΆαααΆα ααααααααΆαα±ααααΆαααααΎαααΊααααααα αααααα’αΊααα»α ααααΈααΆααααααΌα ααααΆαα ααΉαα αααααα’αααααααα α’αα·ααααΆααααΆααααααΊααΆαα·αα»αααααα αααααααα’αΆα αααα»αα±αααααΆααΆααααααΆαα’αΊααα»ααα·αααΌαααΆααααα»αα α·ααααααα»αααΆαααΆαααααααα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααααΆαα·α αα ααααα»αααα»ααααΆααααααΆα ααααα α αΎαβααααα·αααΎα’αα·ααααΆααααααααΎα±αααααααΌαααΆαααΆααααααΆα αααααααααα·α αα α’αΆα ααΉαααααααααααααα ααΌα αααα α’ααααΆα’αα·ααααΆαα αααααααααΉαααααΌαααΆαααααΆαααΆααααΆααααααα αα ααααα’αΆαααα·α ααΈααααΆααααα ααΆααα αααααααααααααΌαααααααα·αααααααΆααα α»ααααααΆαααααΆααααααααααααααααΌαααΆααααα ααααΆααααααΎααα αααα»ααα·ααααααααααΈααααα ααΆαα αΆααααααΎααααα ααααΆα αα·αααΆαααααααααααααΆαααααΆααααΆαααα α»α αααααααααααΆαα’αα»ααααΆαααΆααααααΆαααΆααααααΎαα‘αΎαααααα·α α α αΎααα½αααααααΆαα½αααΉαααΆαα’αΆααα’α½αααΈαααα αΆαααααα αα·αααααΆαααΆαααΌαα·ααΆααααααααααΆα ααΆααα’ααααααααα»αααΆαα±ααααΆαααΆααα·αα αααΆααααΆαααα αααα»αααααααα·α αα αα ααααα’αΆαααα·α αα½αααΆαα½αααΉαααΆααααα½αααΆαααααααΆαααααΆαααααααααα»αα αα»αααΆααΆα α₯α‘αΌαααααααα½αααΎαα‘αΎα ααΎαα·αα’ααααΆα’αα·ααααΆααΎαα‘αΎαααααα αααααα»αα αα»αα’αΆα ααΉαααα½αααΆαααΆααααααΈααααΆααα αααααααααα½αααααααααα ααΆααααααα»αααααα’αΆα ααααΎα±ααααΆαααΆαααααααααααααααΎαααααααα·α αα ααΆαα·αααα’αΆα ααΉαααΆα Stagflation ααααααααα αααΆαα·ααααΆααΆααααααΆαααΆαα αααΎααααα»αααΆααααααΆααααααΆα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααα ααααααΆαααααααα |English Version| Weekly Data Summary Report As ofβ Feb 22, 2024 In this report, we will assess major economies, including the United States, the Eurozone, Japan, Australia, and Canada, mainly based on their economic indicators and economic events that have occurred within this week. Australia Tighter labor market conditions and persistent inflation have led the Reserve Bank of Australia to commit to a hawkish rate cut and cautious approach at its next meeting. With a saying that βeasing too quickly would lead to a delay in disinflation progress.β Therefore, further data releases will likely determine the next decision, although they still lean on the holding rate for now, especially with the recent trade war. Japan Positive economic growth, a solid labor market, and stronger inflation are all calling out for the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) interest rate hike. However, BOJ Governor Ueda cited that he will increase bond purchases if the bond yield rises shapely to stabilize the financial condition, and that hints at indecisiveness in the next future policy. And yet if the data continue to improve further, then the Bank of Japan possibly will have no choice except for further tightening monetary policy. So if the BOJ raises the rate, β Strengthens the yen currency and restrains inflation. Canada Sales demand coming for Canada rose significantly to 2.5%, which may resulted from the sales tax break from mid-December to mid-February and the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) repeated easing measuresβCanadaβs policy stimulus. While these stimuli may provide a short-term boost to economic growth, concerns remain about the long-term outlook. Elevated raw material and production costs are squeezing businesses, that are attempting to maintain selling prices. This pressure is likely to dampen long-term growth and could lead to stagflation. Furthermore, the 25% tariff imposed by the US on Canadian imports will exacerbate inflationary pressures by further increasing raw material costs. The United Kingdom Many businesses are raising concerns over the wage inflation that is tumultuous on both business profit and consumer spending while hinting at the potential of having stagflation in the near term. Recent data showed a significant rise in average wage growth, while the consumer price index surged higher to 3.0%, supporting the statement cited earlier. And yet, if demand reduces and businesses no longer hold out for these high operation expenses, then they have no choice but to cut down the employment level, resulting in slow growth. The Eurozone The same concern as the United Kingdom: service inflation is the main culprit in making the European Central Bank rate decision less confident, especially when the meeting is a few weeks away. And with softer activities being brought out, if high inflation continues to eat away at the demand, then economic growth will also likely be softening in response. With that in mind, todayβs consumer price index will be widely anticipated. The United States The housing market continues to give a dampening outlook due to a weakness in housing demand seen in the recent data. Housing starts and existing home sales are walking backward while building permits slightly improve. Adding on to the gloomy global outlook from tariffs and geopolitical development, all of these are leading uncertainty to in the US economy along with widespread concern among the companies. Now the question arises: either they are expecting higher inflationary pressures or further squeezing businesses’ profit margins will take a toll. All of these choices are leading to softer growth or possibly posing a stagflation threat. Most of the Federal Reserves are now supporting holding the rate. Extra:
Economic News: An uncertain outlook remains from Trumpβs policies
αααΆααΆααααααΆααα αα ααααα’αΆαααα·α αααααΎαααΎαααΈααααΆαααΆαααααααα·α αα ααΆααααα αα α»αααααα αααΆααΆααααααΆααα αα ααααα’αΆαααα·ααα ααααΆαααααΈααΆαααααα ααΎααααΎαα αΆαα·αααα’ααααΆα’αα·ααααΆ ααααααααααα’ααααΆα’αααααααΆαααΆαααΆαααααΎααΉαααΆαααΆαααΎαα‘αΎαααΌα ααααΆα ααΆααααααα»αααααα’αΆα αααααΆααααααΎααΆαααααΎα²ααα’αα·ααααΆααΆααα ααα’ααααΆααααα αααα αΆαααααΆαα αααααΆαα ααα»ααααΆααααααα ααΌα αααα ααααα·αααΎα’ααααΆα’αααα’ααααΆαααΆαααααΎααΎαα‘αΎα αααααΆααΆαααααααααΎαααααααα·α αα β ααΆααααααααΆαααααΆααΈαααΌααααΆαααΆααααΆααααΉαααΆαααΆααααα αααΎα ααΌα α’αααΈααααααΆαααΆααααααααααααα’ααααααααααααααΆααα·αααΆαααΎαα‘αΎαααΎααααααα·α αα α αααααα’αααααααα ααααααΆαααααααα ααα Elon Musk αααααΆααααΌαα·ααααα·ααααααα»αααααααα Trump α₯α‘αΌαααααααα»ααα·α αΆαααΆααΎααΆαααααΎαααααααααΎ Federal Reserve ααααααα αΆαααΈααααααΆααααααΎαααΆαααΆααα·αα αααΆααααΆαααααααααααααΆαααααΆααα»αα αααΆααΆααααααΆααααα»α αααααΈααΆα’αα·ααααΆααααΈαααααα αααα»ααααααααααα»αααΆαααΎαα‘αΎααααααααα 4.0% αα·αααΆααααααΎαααΆαααααααααΆααΆααααααΆααααα»αα’αΆα ααΉαααα‘αΎαα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααααααα ααα’αα·ααΆα BOJ Ueda ααααΆαααΎαα‘αΎααααααααΆ “ααΉααα·αααΌααααααααα»ααααΆαααΆαααα αα ααααα·αααΎαα·ααααααααααΆαααααααΎαα‘αΎααααΆαααααΆαα” αααα»ααααααααααααΎα±ααααΆααααα·αααΆααααα»αααΈααααΆαα α·ααααααααα»α ααΆααα·αααΌααααααααα»αααΊααΆααααααααααΆααααααΌααααααααααααααΆαααΌαα·αααααα»αααααααααΆαα·ααΆααααα»α (QE) αααααααΌαααΆαααααΎααααΆααααΎααααΈααΆαααααααα αΆαα·ααααααα»ααααα»ααααααααααΆαα·ααΆααααα»αα ααΌα αααα USDJPY ααΆαααΎαα‘αΎααααααααααααααΆαβ150αβ |English Version| The Federal Reserve Given the current economic condition, the Federal Reserve is now anxious about the upside inflation risk while foreseeing a higher risk in the unemployment rate, possibly delaying the timing of achieving the annual target rate. Due to various reasons are stated below: So if the unemployment rate rises, which hinders economic growth, β potential of having a stagflation scenario just like what the purchasing managersβ index stated on the UK economy. Extra: Elon Musk, Trumpβs closest partner during his campaign, is now considering having the audit on the Federal Reserve, hinting more uncertainty is likely to come. The Bank of Japan Although recent inflation in Japan surged higher to 4.0% and raised the bar of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the BOJ governor Ueda also cited that βto purchase bonds quickly if bond yields rise sharply,” aiming to stabilize the financial conditions. Purchasing bonds is a form of quantitative easing (QE), that is used to ease the risk exposed to increased debt-servicing costs from higher Japanese government bond yields. Therefore, USDJPY rose higher to approximately 150.
OPEC – Organization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesΒ
βοΈ αααααΉαααααΆαα βοΈ ααααααααααΈΒ OPEC OPECΒ α¬Β Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (α’αααααΆααααααα»αααααααααΆααααααα αα)Β Β ααΊααΆα’αααααΆαα’αααααααααΆαα·ααΆαα ααα½αΒ 13Β ααααααααΆαα αααααααΒ ααααααααααααα½αααααααααΆαααααααααααααΆαα·ααααααααα½ααΒ βοΈ α ααα»α’αααΈααΆαααΆΒ OPECΒ ααααΌαααΆααααααΎαα‘αΎα? OPECΒ ααααΌαααΆααααααΎαα‘αΎααα ααααΆαΒ 1960Β ααΎααααΈβααΆααΆααβαααααααααβαααααα·αβαααααβαα αααα»αβαα·αααααβααΈβααΆαβαααα α»αΒ αα·ααααααΎαβαααααβαααααααααΆααααααΒ ααΌα αααα αα αααααααααααααα½αααΆαααααααααααααααααΒ ααααααααααααααααΉαααααΎααΌα ααααΆααΎααααΈααααα½ααααααααααα»αααΈααααΆαα’ααααααΆαα· αααααΆααΉαα’αΆα ααΆαα±ααααΆαααΆαααα α»ααααα»αααααα»αααααααααα»αα’ααααΆααΏαααΆααα»ααΒ βοΈ ααΎαααΆαααΆαααΒ OPECΒ Β αααααα ααααααΆααα αααααΆ? OPECΒ αααααα ααααααΆααααΆαααΆαααααΈααααΆαααααααααα αΆααααααααααα½ααα α αααααααΆαααααααΆαααααΈαα½αααΒ βοΈ αααααααααααΆαα ααααααΆααααΆαααΆαααΒ OPEC αααααααααααΆαα ααααααΆααααΆαααΆαααΒ OPECΒ ααΊ ααΎααααΈαααααααΌααα αα α»ααααααααΆαΒ αα·αααΆααα·ααΆαααΎααΈααααΆαααααααα·αααααΒ αα½αααΆαααααααΆαα»ααααααΆαααααααααααΒ αα·ααααααΌαααΆαΒ ααααα·αααα·αααααΒ αα·ααα·ααααΆααΆααααααααααααΒ βοΈ ααααααααααααααα ααααααααααααααα ααΊΒ $70-$80Β αααα»ααα½αααΆαααααβ α αΎαααααα·αααΎααααααααααααααΆααα α»αααααααααααααααα Β ααααααααΆααααααΒ OPECΒ ααΉαααΆααααααα·αααΎααΆααααααααααααααααα½αααΒ ααΌα αααααααααα’αΆα ααΎαα‘αΎαααααααΒ βοΈ ααααααααΆααΒ 13Β αααα αΌαααΆαααΆαα·αααα’αααααΆαΒ OPEC &Β βοΈΒ ααααααααΆααΒ 5Β αααααααΎααααΆαααααααα αααΎαααΆααα ααααααααΆααΒ 13Β αααα αΌαααΆαααΆαα·αααα’αααααΆαΒ OPECαΒ α’αΆααα αααααΈ,Β α’ααα αααα‘αΆ,Β αα»αα ααα,Β α’αααααΆαααα αααΈαα,Β α αααΆαα»α,Β α’ααΈαααα,Β α’ααΈαααΆαα,Β αα»ααααα,Β ααΈαααΈ,Β ααΈα αααααΈαααΆ,Β α’αΆαααΆαααΈααΆα’αΌααΈα,Β α’αααΈαααΆαα’αΆαααΆαααα½α,Β αα·ααααααααα»αα’αα‘αΆαΒ ααααααααΆαα 5 αααααααΎααααΆαααααααα αααΎαααΆααααβ αα ααααα’αΆαααα·α, ααΆααΆαααααααααααΆααΆαα·αβα α·α, α₯ααααΆ, αααα»α, αα·ααα»αααααΈα βοΈ ααΎΒ OPECΒ ααΆαααααα α ααα½αααα»ααααΆα? OPEC ααΆαααααα α ααα½α 3 ααΊα 1. αααααΆααααααααααα±ααααΆαβαααα·αααΆαα ααΎααααΈαααααΆαααα·αααΆααααααααααααααααΆααααααααααα½αααα·αααααααααααααααααΆαα·ααααααααα½αααΆααααααΌααΆα 2. ααΆαααααααααΆααααααααα½αααααααααααα ααΎααααΈααΆαααααααααΆααααααααα½ααααααααααα ααααααααΉαααΆααΉαααααΎα±ααααΆαααα·α αα·αααΆααααααααααααααααααα½αααΆαααα ααααααΆααααα’αΆα ααααΎααΆααααααΆαααααΆαα·α OPECα 3. ααΆαααααααα’αα·ααα αα·ααααααααΆαα ααααααα½αααΆαααααααααααααααα ααΎααααΈααααααααΉαα’αα·ααα αα·αααΆαααααααΆα αααααΆααααααα’αΆα αα½αααΆαααααααααΆααααααααα½ααααααααααααα ααΎααΈααααΆαα’ααααααΆαα·α βοΈ ααΎαααΆαααΆαααΒ OPECΒ ααΆαα₯αααα·αααααΆαααΌα ααααα ααααα ααααααααααα·α αα ? αα½ααΆααΈααααα’αααααΆαΒ OPECΒ ααΊαααααΆαααα·αααΆαααααααα αααα»αααΈααααΆααααααα’ααααααΆαα·Β ααΎααααΈαααααααΆααααΆααααααααα½αααααααααααααα ααααααααααααααααα₯αααααααααΌαααΆαααααααα αα»ααα·ααα·ααααααΒ αααααααΆααααα»αααα αΆαααΆα ααααα»αααΆαααα·ααααα·αΒ ααΎααααΈααααααααΆαααααα»ααΆαα»ααΎααα ααΆααα·ααααααααα ααΆααααααΆαααΉααααααΌαΒ αα·αααααααΎαααα·ααααααΒ ααααα·αααΎααααααΎαααααΆαααα·αααΎαα‘αΎαΒ αααααα·αααααΆαααααααααΒ αααααΆααα·αααα αααα½ααΆαααΆαα αααΎαααααΎααααΆαααααααααΆααΆαααΒ ααΌα ααααααααααααααααΆααααΉαααΆααααα‘αΎαααααααααααΆααα’αααααααΎααααΆαααΒ αααααΆαααααααααααα‘αΎαααααΒ ααααΎα±ααααααααΎαααααΆαααα·αΒ (αααααααΌαααΆααααααΌααα α’αααααααΎααααΆαα)Β ααΉαα‘αΎαααααΒ αααααΆααα’αααααα’αΆα αααααΆαα±ααααααα αααΆααααα»αααΆαααααα ααααααΒ αααααΆαα±ααααΆαα’αα·ααααΆαααααΒ αα·αα’αΆα ααΆαααααααααααΎαααααααα·α αα ααααααΒ |English Version| βοΈ Key takeaway βοΈ Understand aboutβ OPEC OPEC or Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is an intergovernmental organization of 13 countries oil-exporting countries that coordinate the petroleum policies of its members.Β βοΈ Why OPEC was formed? OPEC was formed in 1960 to prevent the worldβs largest oil producers from lowering the price of oil. So, once one country reduces its oil price, other countries will do so to compete in the international market. This would lead to a depletion of oil reserves at a more rapid rate. βοΈ When is the OPEC report released? OPEC released its monthly oil market reports around the middle of each month.Β βοΈ Purpose of releasing the OPEC report Purpose of releasing this report: to provide updates and analysis on the global oil market, including supply and demand dynamics, production levels, and price trends.Β βοΈ The oil target price The target price for oil is currently between $70 and $80 per barrel. If prices drop below those levels then OPEC countries will restrict their supply so prices can push higher.Β βοΈΒ What are the 13 countries? & The top 5 biggest consumers of oil The 13 countries of OPEC:Β The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has 13 members: Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.Β The top 5 biggest consumers of oil:Β The United States of America, the Peopleβs Republic of China, India, Japan, and Russia.Β βοΈΒ Goals of OPEC OPEC has 3 main goals:Β 1. Keep oil prices stable: To keep oil prices stable by coordinating its members’ oil production through quotas. 2. Reduce oil price volatility: To reduce oil price volatility, in the hope of making the production and supply of oil as profitable as possible for OPEC members 3. Minimize surpluses and shortages: Adjust the supply of oil to combat surpluses and shortages which in turn can help reduce the volatility of oil prices on international markets. βοΈΒ How can the OPEC report affect the economy?Β OPECβs role is to stabilize prices in international oil markets to prevent large movements in prices. It plays a part when petrol prices are set around the world. Oil is also needed in the manufacturing of goods to turn raw ingredients into the finished product through transportation and manufacturing costs. If the costs to produce increase, products become more expensive, and this will be passed on to the consumer. Households also use oil for energy so higher oil prices mean higher bills for consumers. As higher oil prices increase the cost of manufacturing (which is passed onto the consumer) and increase the cost of utilities to consumers, this can all cause higher living costs. This, in turn, leads to higher inflation and reduced economic growth.Β
Effective Federal Fund Rate (EFFR/Fed Rate)Β
βοΈΒ αααααΉαααααΆαα βοΈΒ ααααααααααΈΒ Fed Rate Fed RateΒ ααΊααΆα’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααααααα Β αααααααααααΒ FOMC (ααααααααΆαα·ααΆαααΈααααΆαααΎαα αα αα ααααα)Β αααααΆαααααΆααΆαααΆαα·αααααα αΈΒ αα·ααααααααααΆαααααα αΈααααα»αααΎααααααα½αααα±ααααααΆαα αα·ααα ααΒ α αΎααααααααα ααααααααΆαααααΆααααααΌααααααΊααΎααααΈααααα»ααααααααΆααααΉαα’ααααΆα’αα·ααααΆαΒ βοΈΒ ααααα ααΒ Fed Rate ααααα ααΒ Fed RateαΒ ααΎααααΈααΎαααααααααααΎαααααααα·α αα αααααααααα·αααααααΆαΒ αααααΎαα’ααααΆααΆαααΆαααΆαααααΎα±ααααΆααααααΒ α’ααααΆααΆαααααΆαααααααααααααααα·ααααααΒ αα·αααΎααααΈαααααΆα’αααΆα αα·αααααααΆαααα»ααααΆαα’αΆαααα·ααΒ βοΈΒ ααΆαααααα·α αα ααααΒ Federal ReserveΒ ααααΌαααΆααααα ααααΆαα½ααααααααΌαα αΒ βοΈΒ ααΎΒ Fed RateΒ ααααΌαααΆαααααααααΆαααΌα ααααα ? Fed Rate ααααΌαααΆαααααααααα βοΈΒ ααΆααααααΆααααΒ Fed Rate ααΆααΆαααΆααααααΆαααααααΆααα ααα»ααα’αααααΊα α. α’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααα‘αΎααααα αααααααΎα±αααααΆααΆααα·ααΆααααα»αααΆαααα αΈααααΆαα α. ααααΎα±ααααααααα·α αα ααααΆααα α»α αααααΆαααα’αΆααΈααααααααααααα·ααΆααααα»αααΆαααα αΈααααΆαααααα αα·αα·ααα α. α’ααααΆααΆαααααΆααα α»αααα ααΌα ααααααΆααΆαααΆααααα½ααααα»αααΆαααα αΈααααΆαα α. αα½αααααα»αα±ααβααΆαααααΎαααααααα·α αα αααααΆαααααΆαααΆαααα αΈααααΆααααΈαααααΆαααα»αα αα»α αα·ααα·αα·αααα·ααααααααααα αα·αα·ααα βοΈΒ α₯αααα·ααααΒ Fed Rate |English Version| βοΈΒ Key takeaway βοΈΒ Understand about Fed Rate The Fed Rate is not an indicator but is the target rate set by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)β for commercial banks to borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. Thus, the primary purpose of this change is to combat with inflation rate.Β βοΈΒ The goal of Fed Rate The goal of the Fed Rate is to promote sustainable economic growth, high employment rates, moderate long-term interest rates, and to preserve the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.Β βοΈΒ What are the duties of the Federal Reserve? The Fed’s main duties include:Β βοΈΒ How is the fed rate determined? Fed Rate is determined by: βοΈΒ The importance of Fed Rate It is important for 2 reasons: a. More expensive for banks to borrow money b. Helps to slow down the economy by making it more expensive for businesses to borrow money and invest.Β a. Cheaper for banks to borrow money. b. Helps to stimulate the economy by making it cheaper for businesses to borrow money and invest.Β βοΈΒ The impact of Fed Rate